MIKE LEE'S HANDICAPPING SUCCESS FORMULA
M + I = 60
How many of you know what the famous formula, E=mc2, really means? If E = energy which is derived from M (mass) multiplied by C (velocity of light) squared, and can be harnessed and used in a constructive manner, our lives would be much happier, right? What do you mean, who cares? Okay, so Albert can be a bit vague. How about contemplating the handicapping formula of M + I – 60. If M (MATHEMATICS) AND I (INTANGIBLES) are added together, we have a sum of 60. Make sense? Of course not! However, if we add a percent sign to the end of the 60, the picture gets a little clearer. Put another way, if a handicapper uses a combination of mathematics plus intangibles in his selection process, he stands an excellent shot at achieving that elusive 60 percent mark against the spread!
Let’s take a look at what a handicapper should use in his mathematical approach.
POWER RATINGS
For many years, I have used Power Ratings in my quest for the 60 percent barrier. The first place to begin when analyzing a game is with numbers. It is critical for a handicapper to have a firm mathematical base on which to base an opinion. Power Ratings provide such a base. Many sports publications provide readers with a weekly Power Ratings section. These ratings are updated weekly based on various factors such as points for/against, injuries and win/loss records. I try to take these rating one step further by providing HOME/AWAY POWER RATINGS on each team, especially in Pro Football, Pro Basketball and College Basketball. Many teams play much differently on the road than at home. Some clubs are what I call homers. These teams play much better at home than away. On the other hand, some teams play better on the road than in front of their home fans! A number of lower echelon teams fall into this category, finding it easier to play on the road than in front of their own hostile home crowd. Bad teams rarely possess good home power ratings.
The best way to form your own power ratings is by using what I call the MARGIN technique. The difference between points scored and points against is the margin. If a team wins by a 20-10 count of a 90 rated team, we have a +10 margin added to the 90 for a 100 rating. If a team loses by 7-34 to a team with a 100 power rating, we deduct the margin of loss (27) from the 100 for a 73 rating. Again I’ll say, it’s important to have a power rating list of all teams involved, whether it be the NFL, NBA or college sports.
Publications like THE GOLD SHEET, SPORTS REPORTER, WINNING POINTS and, last but not least, my own MONEYMAKER have solid power ratings from which you can form your own mathematical base.
DIFFICULTY OF OPPOSITION
It amazes me each year how many handicappers fail to realize the importance of a team’s SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY. A team with a losing record against tough foes is often SUPERIOR to a team with a winning record against weak opposition. Having a good power rating base is a key ingredient in following difficulty of opposition for each team. Difficulty of Opposition is more relevant in College basketball than any other sport. On any given Saturday, some 60 games are played. Keeping track of points for/against and difficulty of opposition is essential. The NBA along with the NFL, is more uniform from top to bottom and therefore, difficulty of opposition is less important as the season goes along. Let’s assume you are able to place a good mathematical number on each game based on pure stats. Whether you keep your own power ratings or subscribe to someone’s service, make sure you can make your own line on each game in advance. With that thought in mind, it is time to turn our attention to the INTANGIBLES, the emotional factors which will have an influence on the mathematical line you now possess.
REVENGE
No factor in sports handicapping can be more important or, for that matter, MISLEADING, than the revenge factor. You hear the word everywhere you go in sports betting circles. A certain team needs revenge while another wants to get double revenge. In pro basketball, we get triple and quadruple revenge setups. I’ll tell you, it is enough to drive you nuts after awhile! Please, whatever you do, learn all you can about revenge in football, basketball and yes, even baseball. Remember this. Good teams are more capable of extracting revenge from their opponents than bad teams. Real bad teams just keep getting their brains kicked in! Make a note of tough, close losses as well as big blowouts. College sports are more conducive to revenge than pro sports. The kids in college play for the love of the game, therefore, emotion takes precedence over the calculating style the pros play for money. In college football, follow certain coaches (winning ones) who love to get their teams up in revenge situations. In college basketball, the month of February and March present some excellent revenge opportunities in what I call the “second season” as conference teams meet each other the second time. Whether it be pro or college, decide how much value to give revenge. Take you basic math number (spread) and then add or deduct 1,2 or 3 points based on this factor.
DUE FACTORS
What is a due factor? On an individual level, it is akin to a person having a series of good days and then having one in which he wished he’d never gotten out of bed. After a series of bad days, a person can almost bank on having a good day, one in which the rain ends and the sun shines on a spectacular rainbow. On a team level, this factor applies to a good-bad game (s) scenario. A bad team that plays over its head for a while will invariably come back to earth in the most gruesome of manners. A good team playing below its level will rise to the occasion and destroy its opponent by 30 or more points. As a handicapper, you must know when these reversals of form will most likely happen. When you suspect such an occurrence, then alter you mathematical line accordingly. If your numbers tell you Dallas should be a 7 point favorite over the Giants based on pure math, then you might want to alter that figure (upwards, of course) if Dallas has played BELOW its level in recent weeks. If the cowboys have played a few big “up” games in a row, you might want to lower that 7 a few points based on the due factor pointing to a down game. DUE FACTORS! They will keep you in line and away from playing the way the John Q Public sees a game. He usually reacts to the latest results and is usually dead wrong, by the way.
There you have it. The best of what it takes to beat the 60 percent barrier against the spread. Make a mathematical number (‘M’) on each game. Now add (+) the intangibles (‘I’) such as revenge and due factors. Take these intangibles and adjust your pure math figure accordingly. The ‘60’ you achieve after this adjustment will be when you compare your own personal line against the Vegas spread. If your number is close to the Vegas line lay off the game. If you see a big difference, play with confidence and by the way, you’ll hit that ‘60’ with your formula if you play far more dogs than favorites.
Now let me see, If ‘E’ is equal to the mass (‘M’) times the velocity of light (‘C’) squared, the we will eventually have the ability to run our cars, light, cool and heat our homes from the free energy in the space which has surrounded us all along. Until then, let’s be content on hitting 60 percent against the spread and then we will be able to afford one of these machines when they go on the market. Until then, for every 6 winners you hit out of 10, you’ll still miss 4 games. That is a fact of life. Accept it!
FOR MORE INFO EMAIL: fomsports@gmail.com
M + I = 60
How many of you know what the famous formula, E=mc2, really means? If E = energy which is derived from M (mass) multiplied by C (velocity of light) squared, and can be harnessed and used in a constructive manner, our lives would be much happier, right? What do you mean, who cares? Okay, so Albert can be a bit vague. How about contemplating the handicapping formula of M + I – 60. If M (MATHEMATICS) AND I (INTANGIBLES) are added together, we have a sum of 60. Make sense? Of course not! However, if we add a percent sign to the end of the 60, the picture gets a little clearer. Put another way, if a handicapper uses a combination of mathematics plus intangibles in his selection process, he stands an excellent shot at achieving that elusive 60 percent mark against the spread!
Let’s take a look at what a handicapper should use in his mathematical approach.
POWER RATINGS
For many years, I have used Power Ratings in my quest for the 60 percent barrier. The first place to begin when analyzing a game is with numbers. It is critical for a handicapper to have a firm mathematical base on which to base an opinion. Power Ratings provide such a base. Many sports publications provide readers with a weekly Power Ratings section. These ratings are updated weekly based on various factors such as points for/against, injuries and win/loss records. I try to take these rating one step further by providing HOME/AWAY POWER RATINGS on each team, especially in Pro Football, Pro Basketball and College Basketball. Many teams play much differently on the road than at home. Some clubs are what I call homers. These teams play much better at home than away. On the other hand, some teams play better on the road than in front of their home fans! A number of lower echelon teams fall into this category, finding it easier to play on the road than in front of their own hostile home crowd. Bad teams rarely possess good home power ratings.
The best way to form your own power ratings is by using what I call the MARGIN technique. The difference between points scored and points against is the margin. If a team wins by a 20-10 count of a 90 rated team, we have a +10 margin added to the 90 for a 100 rating. If a team loses by 7-34 to a team with a 100 power rating, we deduct the margin of loss (27) from the 100 for a 73 rating. Again I’ll say, it’s important to have a power rating list of all teams involved, whether it be the NFL, NBA or college sports.
Publications like THE GOLD SHEET, SPORTS REPORTER, WINNING POINTS and, last but not least, my own MONEYMAKER have solid power ratings from which you can form your own mathematical base.
DIFFICULTY OF OPPOSITION
It amazes me each year how many handicappers fail to realize the importance of a team’s SCHEDULE DIFFICULTY. A team with a losing record against tough foes is often SUPERIOR to a team with a winning record against weak opposition. Having a good power rating base is a key ingredient in following difficulty of opposition for each team. Difficulty of Opposition is more relevant in College basketball than any other sport. On any given Saturday, some 60 games are played. Keeping track of points for/against and difficulty of opposition is essential. The NBA along with the NFL, is more uniform from top to bottom and therefore, difficulty of opposition is less important as the season goes along. Let’s assume you are able to place a good mathematical number on each game based on pure stats. Whether you keep your own power ratings or subscribe to someone’s service, make sure you can make your own line on each game in advance. With that thought in mind, it is time to turn our attention to the INTANGIBLES, the emotional factors which will have an influence on the mathematical line you now possess.
REVENGE
No factor in sports handicapping can be more important or, for that matter, MISLEADING, than the revenge factor. You hear the word everywhere you go in sports betting circles. A certain team needs revenge while another wants to get double revenge. In pro basketball, we get triple and quadruple revenge setups. I’ll tell you, it is enough to drive you nuts after awhile! Please, whatever you do, learn all you can about revenge in football, basketball and yes, even baseball. Remember this. Good teams are more capable of extracting revenge from their opponents than bad teams. Real bad teams just keep getting their brains kicked in! Make a note of tough, close losses as well as big blowouts. College sports are more conducive to revenge than pro sports. The kids in college play for the love of the game, therefore, emotion takes precedence over the calculating style the pros play for money. In college football, follow certain coaches (winning ones) who love to get their teams up in revenge situations. In college basketball, the month of February and March present some excellent revenge opportunities in what I call the “second season” as conference teams meet each other the second time. Whether it be pro or college, decide how much value to give revenge. Take you basic math number (spread) and then add or deduct 1,2 or 3 points based on this factor.
DUE FACTORS
What is a due factor? On an individual level, it is akin to a person having a series of good days and then having one in which he wished he’d never gotten out of bed. After a series of bad days, a person can almost bank on having a good day, one in which the rain ends and the sun shines on a spectacular rainbow. On a team level, this factor applies to a good-bad game (s) scenario. A bad team that plays over its head for a while will invariably come back to earth in the most gruesome of manners. A good team playing below its level will rise to the occasion and destroy its opponent by 30 or more points. As a handicapper, you must know when these reversals of form will most likely happen. When you suspect such an occurrence, then alter you mathematical line accordingly. If your numbers tell you Dallas should be a 7 point favorite over the Giants based on pure math, then you might want to alter that figure (upwards, of course) if Dallas has played BELOW its level in recent weeks. If the cowboys have played a few big “up” games in a row, you might want to lower that 7 a few points based on the due factor pointing to a down game. DUE FACTORS! They will keep you in line and away from playing the way the John Q Public sees a game. He usually reacts to the latest results and is usually dead wrong, by the way.
There you have it. The best of what it takes to beat the 60 percent barrier against the spread. Make a mathematical number (‘M’) on each game. Now add (+) the intangibles (‘I’) such as revenge and due factors. Take these intangibles and adjust your pure math figure accordingly. The ‘60’ you achieve after this adjustment will be when you compare your own personal line against the Vegas spread. If your number is close to the Vegas line lay off the game. If you see a big difference, play with confidence and by the way, you’ll hit that ‘60’ with your formula if you play far more dogs than favorites.
Now let me see, If ‘E’ is equal to the mass (‘M’) times the velocity of light (‘C’) squared, the we will eventually have the ability to run our cars, light, cool and heat our homes from the free energy in the space which has surrounded us all along. Until then, let’s be content on hitting 60 percent against the spread and then we will be able to afford one of these machines when they go on the market. Until then, for every 6 winners you hit out of 10, you’ll still miss 4 games. That is a fact of life. Accept it!
FOR MORE INFO EMAIL: fomsports@gmail.com
